The Political Story

Sometimes your child needs a spanking (although a “time out” is far more trendy these days). It is never fun, and always causes drama… but it may just stop them burning themselves on the stove next time.

Michigan and Florida are whining about their pending punishment. Sure, they were warned that they’d lose their delegates if they ran their contests too early. Sure, they broke these rules. But no one seriously believes in consequences for actions anymore, do they?

There is an old Proverb that says “spare the rod, spoil the child”. Such sweet pieces of wisdom were written way before “political correctness” swept across our Western world. (There is also a Proverb about a nagging wife being like a tap going drip, drip, drip…) Just try saying one of those sentences out loud at your next dinner party.

The consequences (or rod, if you will) for running an early Primary couldn’t have been more clear. Michigan knew. Florida knew. Hillary knew. But here we are, several months later and we are seriously entertaining a discussion about whether or not they will be given their delegates back.

Yes, sometimes a parent overreacts and threatens a punishment they don’t ever intend to administer. Trouble arises when the child calls the parents bluff. “Are you REALLY going to tear my arms off in public?” they taunt. And perhaps Howard Dean overstepped the mark with his delegate threat. But it’s too late to second guess now. The threat was made, and it must be carried through. Why?

Because it is always a short term view of parenting that leads you to the conclusion that it is best not to punish. Sure, it saves having to deal with a wailing child in the supermarket, and you avoid the embarrassment and sideways glares from other shoppers. But the problem is, if you don’t follow through with a bit of metaphorical stick, the next time you hit the aisles, your kid is going to pull all the biscuits off the shelves again.

The question for the DNC is this: How do they want the states to behave in future nominating contests? If they expect them to fall in line next time, they had better follow through with the punishment. The Michigan and Floridian children may be causing a scene in public… But spoil the child this time, and just wait and see the carnage that follows in 4 or 8 years.

With Obama paying 10:1 to win Indiana, I had to gamble. Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos” may have cost me some Benjamins, but it will actually help Obama get to the White House.

So here is Rush’s game plan: drag out the Democratic Nomination for as long as possible in the hope that it helps the Republicans. His method has been to get Republicans to vote in the Democratic Primary for Hillary, thus ensuring the battle continues. Makes sense right?

Only if you are thinking one step down the road, instead of two or three.

Here’s what Rush is missing: The massive advantage the Democrats are getting is a little thing called NEW VOTER REGISTRATION. It is happening in unprecedented numbers (AP estimates 3.5 million in the competitive primaries! 3.5 MILLION!) In recent political history, the nomination is decided after 3 or 4 states. So usually, a state like Indiana or North Carolina doesn’t care about the nomination process, and the punters don’t tune in till October.

Not this time.

For the first time in a long time, the friendly residents of states long ignored actually get to have a say in the outcome. And this means they are interested. Very interested.

So, Obama and Hillary both have a captive audience and they are registering new voters in the millions. Guess who these voters will be turning out for in November? Hint: he isn’t 72 years old.

The Clinton/Obama tensions will long be forgotten by October, and Wright will be old news. This lengthy nomination has helped Obama air his dirty laundry, and by keeping him in the news every night it has helped him increase his donor base.

So, in a few months time, Obama will be saying thanks Rush. By doing his bit to keep the nomination fight competitive, he is directly responsible for helping the Democrats register truckloads of new voters… and the electoral map will be changed for years to come.

But the lunatic still owes me $200.

The pundits sure love a political horse race… even if one horse is only running on 3 legs.

Ever since Obama’s February winning streak of 11-straight Primary and Caucus victories, it has been apparent to most observers that he has an insurmountable delegate lead. Yet for the last 2 months, upon picking up a paper, you’d think it was neck-and-neck race. The mainstream media tend to create an alternative reality - free of logic or mathematics - mostly so they have something to keep writing about. It may sell papers, but eventually 1 plus 1 must equal 2. Yep, the Hillary bandwagon has lost its wheels, and reporters everywhere have given up on the charade.

But never fear - there is another dead horse waiting in the wings for a good ol’ fashioned flogging..

His name is John McCain. He is 72 years old. The core of his own Party don’t even like him, and he is going to be on the receiving end of a Reagan-like shellacking in November. But you won’t read about it until November 5, the day after the election.

Yes we have a new horse race people. And the media would love you to throw out the form guide and enter into their own surreal narrative of the next “close race”. 

One horse is a sprightly, black stallion in his prime. He has been bringing the masses through the turnstiles in unprecedented numbers. He has won his last 3 outings, and the track conditions are perfect.

His competition is an albino veteran than came close to winning the Cup 8 years ago. But a few dirty tricks from the other stables cost him dearly, and he’s never quite been the same. His stride has shortened, and his Straight Talk Express just won’t have the legs to compete.

The media will ignore the fact that the veteran horse only has 3 legs and a heart condition, meaning he can’t get beyond a cantor. His Fox News buddies will dismiss his stumbles as “senior moments”… But that fast moving blur you can see coming down the straight is a guy called Barack Hussein Obama. He may have a funny name, a wacko Pastor, and some interesting political connections… But he also happens to be the next President of the United States of America. You may not read about it for a while… but you sure can bet on it.

Morris Iemma may just have found the only path to Labor victory in 2011: running against his own party.

It was hard to believe that Morris and his mob held on to power in the last NSW election. Remember that classic political slogan they came up with?

“More to do but heading in the right direction” 

Because south is the new north.

So far we have seen crumbling infrastructure, broken promises (WiFi anyone?), and more than a hint of corruption. With 3 years till the next election, all appeared already lost for Morris’ men.

Until this week.

Morris has found a brilliant new strategy. He is leading a revolution against his own party.

With the Unions and old boys rallying against his power sell-off, Morris has found the perfect opportunity to win back some popularity with the punters. He has stood up and given the crusty Labor Party crowd the bird. Heck, he’s extending two middle fingers. The double gun salute.  

The Liberals have no idea what to do. In principle they must approve of privatisation… but they don’t want to make Morris look good. So they will probably come up with some complex way to explain their opposition to it. We’ll hear the Baz-Rat saying “it’s the right idea, but they aren’t to be trusted to do it” or “right idea, wrong market”. And, having out-flanked the Liberals, Morris will be grinning from ear to ear. He’ll have grouped the Liberals in with the Unions, and he’ll stand up and fight against both of them. 

So Morris finally has a game plan: Run against both the Labor and Liberal parties. It’s a long time ’till 2011, and Morris has more to do. But he may just be heading in the right direction.

As if things weren’t bad enough already for the Liberal Party. 

Currently preparing for at least 6 years in Opposition at the Federal level, with the highest ranking party member being a mayor in Brisbane, and not a victory in sight at the State level for several years…

Along comes Troy “Nostrils” Buswell.

In case you have been living under a rock for the past week, the short story is that the leader of the WA Liberal Party, Troy Buswell, confessed to “sniffing” a woman’s chair (in front of her, and then in front of colleagues) after she had been sitting in it. His media confession had the works: regret, apologies, choking-up with tears.

But the real story isn’t that he sniffed the chair. It’s that the chair sniffer apparently remains the best guy for the leadership job in WA, after a failed leadership coup today. 

So it really is hard to know which is worse - the fact that the leader of their party in WA appears to be a chauvinistic loon, or that they don’t have anyone actually up to the task of replacing him. 

One might think the Federal Liberals would seek to put some distance between themselves and Troy’s snoz… but Deputy Leader Julie Bishop hits the airwaves asking for a “second chance” for poor old Nostrils. After all, she argues, Kevin did hit the strip club in NY and went on to become P.M.

Sorry Julie. We are hardly comparing apples with apples here.

Firstly, Nostrils doesn’t quite seem to be a politician of the calibre of Kevin07.

But aside from that, lets look at the details… Kevin gets pissed with a Newspaper guy, stumbles into Scores, perves on a few dancers… and the first thing he does the next day (after taking a few asprin) is call the wife to ‘fess up. And when the story breaks, two things happen: Aussie men love the fact he has some red blood pumping through his Mandarin-speaking veins, and Aussie women love the fact he phoned home to confess. If Kevin had waited till after it hit the media to confess, we may well have seen a different response from female voters.

Now, let’s actually just stop and think through what Troy managed to get up to. He has a meeting. Woman sits in chair. After she gets up, he heads on over, bends down to the ground and starts SNIFFING her chair… He sniffed it. Not once, but twice. Presumably to get a whiff of her woman-ness.

Short of actually tearing her skirt off, it is hard to imagine what Troy could have done that would be more offensive. And as far as we know, there was no immediate phone calls to the wife. Heck, he wasn’t even drunk when he did it. One has to wonder what Nostrils could muster if he’d sunk a few Tequilas…

Which brings us back to the leadership issue. There can be no doubt Nostrils is a dead man walking. But the fact he is holding on to the leadership is a stunning reflection of the lack of depth the Liberals have at both State and Federal levels at the moment. Is there one current leader (be it State or Federal) that anyone actually believes will be leading their respective Party to an election? 

The Liberals are in a tailspin. Short on leadership and short on ideas, it is going to be a long time in the wilderness. Forget about what they can smell… unless they can fix their leadership issues, they won’t be tasting electoral victory for quite a while.